Rate outlook

Bitcoin

2026-09-07 17:29:27

CoinShares says crypto fund flows are tracking the Fed path, not a market exit

Crypto fund flows are reacting more sharply to shifts in US rate expectations, and CoinShares says that helps explain why Bitcoin has struggled to decisively move beyond $80,000. In its latest market update, head of research James Butterfill argued that investor demand for digital assets remains intact, but Federal Reserve policy is still capping upside. After Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said at Jackson Hole that inflation progress had been modest and not yet convincing enough to show a return to the 2% target, roughly $100 million left digital asset investment products as markets raised the odds of a September rate increase. That move reversed in the following week, with flows reaching $1 billion by Sept. 4 after Fed Governor Christopher Waller pointed to signs of disinflation and said he would lean toward holding rates steady in September if inflation data continued to improve. CoinShares says the pattern shows investors are adjusting to the expected rate path rather than abandoning the asset class. The report also places the move in a broader liquidity backdrop shaped by US Treasury buybacks and last month’s rebound in Bitcoin and the wider digital asset market.

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US payrolls

2026-08-07 08:34:51

U.S. July payrolls due tonight as weak-season pattern collides with higher-for-longer bets

The U.S. July nonfarm payrolls report is due later today, with consensus centered on roughly 80,000 new jobs but forecasts spread across an unusually wide range, from 40,000 to 157,000. Goldman Sachs expects 75,000, while Vanguard sees only 18,000, arguing that spring labor data may have been flattered by weather effects, World Cup-related hiring, and early local government recruitment. ADP private payrolls, which rose just 44,000, have added to downside concerns. A major backdrop for the release is the recent pattern of weak July payroll prints. Goldman said that over the past three years, July job growth has come in an average of 66,000 below the then-prevailing three-month average and 35,000 below consensus, often alongside sizable downward revisions to prior months. At the same time, some indicators still offer support, including low layoff readings, lower jobless claims during the Bureau of Labor Statistics survey window, and signs of recovery in government hiring. Markets are also focused on the unemployment rate, labor-force participation, and wages because of their implications for Federal Reserve policy. A stronger report could reinforce expectations that rates stay high for longer, while a softer print could revive pricing for a gentler easing path.

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